FINAL REPORT

								   FINAL REPORT


 GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ANALYSIS OF NORTHERN GOSHAWK
 (ACCIPITER GENTILIS) NEST SITES IN THE UINTA MOUNTAINS

BRAD LENGAS
DAN ROBERTS

INTRODUCTION


	Since the Northern Goshawk has been designated as a Category 2 species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service (U.S. Dept. Interior 1991) and as a sensitive species by the U.S. Forest Service, there has been 
considerable interest in goshawk nesting requirements, food habits, reproductive success, and territory size.

	Management recommendations have been proposed for the Northern Goshawk in the Southwestern U.S.
(Reynolds et al. 1991).  Before management strategies can be implemented, biologists must be able to 
locate goshawk nests.  Survey protocals that are currently in use (Kennedy and Stahlecker 1993, and
Joy et. al. 1994) are labor intensive and time consuming. 

	The objective of this study was to produce models (Johansson et al. 1994) to accurately locate
goshawk nest sites to reduce the time and cost of goshawk nest surveys by reducing the amount of area
that must be surveyed.

	Models were constructed from the following environmental factors:

			Elevation
			Slope
			Aspect
			Vegetation Type
			Forest Canopy Density
			Distance to Water

Figure 1.  Distribution of the Northern Goshawk in the U.S.

A. g. atricapillus -- Breeding Range A. g. laingi -- Breeding and probable wintering range

A. g. atricapillus -- Wintering Range A. g. apache -- Breeding and probable wintering range

Figure 2. Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis).

STUDY AREA: Ashley National Forest in eastern Utah.

				Figure 3.  Ashley National Forest scenic view.

	  	The study area encompassed four 7.5' quads in Daggett and Uintah Counties, Utah.

			LEIDY PEAK 	ELK PARK	 EAST PARK RESEVOIR 	MOUNT LENA

METHODS

IMAGES AND COVERAGES USED FOR THE STUDY AREA:


7.5' 30 Meter Digital Elevation Data (DEM)
Final GAP Vegetation Map at 30 Meters
Utah Landsat Mosaic at 30 Meter Resolution
1:100,000 Water Courses and Bodies
1:100,000 Roads
1:24,000 Quadrangle Index (ut24k-utm)

SOFTWARE:

ARC/INFO 7.0
ERDAS IMAGINE 8.2
MINITAB
CUSTOM ANSI-C PROGRAMS

COVERAGES USED TO BUILD THE MODELS:

ELEVATION: Eleven Categories (Nine 100 m elevation bands, one < 2200 m band, and one > 3100 m band)
SLOPE: Eight Categories (Seven 5% slope bands and one > 35% slope band)

ASPECT: Eight Categories (compass directions)

DISTANCE TO WATER: Eight Categories (Seven 150 Meter bands of distance to water and one > 1050 m band)

GAP VEGETATION: Percent coverage of each vegetation class (aspen, lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine, etc.)
FOREST CANOPY DENSITY: Percent coverage for five tree species classes (from GAP) with three canopy densities
for each (Low, Medium, and High density)

METHODS FOR BUILDING THE COVERAGES:

All Raster Coverages (IMAGINE) - were Georeferenced to UTM, Spheroid Clarke 1866, Zone 12, Datum Clarke 1866,
with 30 Meter pixel sizes and units set to Meters.

NEST SITES - were digitized from locations marked on 7.5' quads. Tics were set to match the corners of the
quads from the 1:24,000 Quadrangle Index.

ELEVATION - LATTICEDEM (in ARC/INFO) converted the DEM lattice into USGS format DEM. GRID (in ARC/INFO) and
the RECLASS command were used to reclassify the elevation grid into the user defined categories (100
Meter elevation bands) in a REMAP_TABLE. The reclassified grid was then imported into IMAGINE as a
raster image.

SLOPE - GRID (in ARC/INFO) and the SLOPE command created the Slope grid from the DEM grid. GRID (in ARC/INFO)
and the RECLASS command were then used to reclassify the slope grid into the user defined categories
(5% slope bands) in a REMAP_TABLE. The reclassified grid was then imported into IMAGINE as a
raster image.

ASPECT - GRID (in ARC/INFO) and the ASPECT command created the Aspect grid from the DEM grid. GRID (in
ARC/INFO) and the RECLASS command were then used to reclassify the aspect grid into the user
defined categories (eight cardinal compass headings) in a REMAP_TABLE. The reclassified grid was
then imported into IMAGINE as a raster image.

DISTANCE TO WATER - water was buffered by 35 pixels by a SEARCH command (IMAGINE - INTERPRETER - GIS ANALYSIS -
SEARCH). The resulting buffered image was then RECODEd (IMAGINE - INTERPRETER - GIS ANALYSIS -
RECODE) by setting zones 1 - 5 to 1, 6 - 10 to 2, ... , 31 - 35 to 7. and zone 36 (outside of
buffer) to 8. This resulted in an image with eight Categories (Seven 150 Meter bands and one
> 1050 M band).

FOREST CANOPY DENSITY - The 30 Meter Landsat Mosaic was reclassified (IMAGINE - CLASSIFIER - UNUPERVISED
CLASSIFICATION) to 30 clusters, then reclassified again (IMAGINE - INTERPRETER - GIS ANALYSIS -
NEIGHBORHOOD) using a 5 x 5 pixel window, and FUNCTION set to DIVERSITY. The resulting image was
then reclassified into 3 categories (Low, Med, & High Diversity). The three category diversity
image was then MATRIXed (IMAGINE - INTERPRETER - GIS ANALYSIS - MATRIX) with a reclassified GAP
Vegetation image that included only forest types where goshawk nest sites had been located (PIPO,
PICO, PSME, POTR, and PIPO/Shrub). This resulted in an image with five tree species classes each
with three levels of diversity. Low reflectance diversity was then assumed to indicate High Density
Canopy and High reflectance diversity was assumed to indicate Low Density Canopy.

METHODS FOR BUILDING THE MODELS:

Predictive Models - These types of models were constructed based upon the random selection of eleven of
twenty-four nest sites. These models were then tested for their ability to locate the remaining
thirteen nest sites.

Inclusive Models - These types of models were constructed based upon the use of all twenty-four
nest sites to determine the total land area required to locate all nest sites.

AREAL PERCENTAGES - Percentages of each category were determined by the number of pixels in each
category from the RASTER ATTRIBUTE TABLE.

DISTANCE TO WATER - Two VIEWERS were opened simultaneously in IMAGINE, with an image of the NEST SITES
in one viewer and the WATER image in the other. The viewers were GEOLINKED, and the INQUIRE
CURSER and the MEASUREMENT TOOL was used to measure the shortest distance from each
nest site to water.

OBSERVED VALUES - A SUMMARY of nest location coverage and coverage of interest determined the
values for nest sites (Appendix 1).

EXPECTED VALUES - An ANSI-C program was used to calculate expected values for each category based
upon the number of selected and total nests and the percentage of the total area represented
by that category.

PRIORITY RANKING FOR ORDER OF SEARCH - Categories were ranked according to the observed - expected
ratios until (1) search order was completed for the predictive models, and (2) all nest sites were
included.

NESTS LOCATED - The cumulative percent of all nest located by model (including selected nests) was added
and the percentage of the nests that were predicted by the predictive models was computed.

AREA SEARCHED - The cumulative percent of the area searched was added for each ranked category.

				Figure 4.  Banding young Northern Goshawks in the nest.

TOTAL NEST SITES

CLASSIFIED

	   Figure 5.  Twenty-four known goshawk nest sites were located within the study area.  
		       Nest sites are shown here highlighted by 24-pixel diameter (420 acre) buffer zones.

SELECTED NEST SITES

CLASSIFIED

 	   Figure 6.  Eleven of the twenty-four nest sites were randomly chosen for use in generating models 
                       to predict the location of goshawk nests. The models were tested for their ability to 
		       predict the thirteen remaining nests that were not selected.

RESULTS AND MODELS

ELEVATION

	   Figure 7.  Elevation Coverage.

                       Elevation (from the DEM) was divided into eleven 100 meter categories as follows:


                	          CATEGORY      % AREA               CATEGORY      % AREA 
            	               < 2200 m           1.37		    2700-2800 m     10.51
	     		         2200-2300 m      3.58	            2800-2900 m     13.15
             		         2300-2400 m      6.13	            2900-3000 m     13.37
	      		         2400-2500 m     10.41	            3000-3100 m      8.69
	     		         2500-2600 m     14.02	          > 3100 m           8.31
	      		         2600-2700 m     10.48	  	 



	        	          TABLE 1.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON ELEVATION

	            ORDER OF   CLASS       PERCENT    SELECT            TOTAL   CUM %    CUM %
	             SEARCH  ELEVATION(m)    AREA     NESTS    OBS-EXP  NESTS   NESTS    AREA

 	               1      2300-2400      6.13       2       1.326     5     20.83     6.13
  	               2      2400-2500     10.41       4       2.855     6     45.83    16.54
 	               3      2800-2900     13.15       2       0.554     4     62.50    29.69
 	               4      2900-3000     13.37       2       0.529     3     75.00    43.06
 	               5      2700-2800     10.51       1      -0.156     4     91.67    53.57

Figure 8.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Elevation model (Table 1).  This model
            predicted eleven of thirteen nests (84.6%) after searching 53.57% of the study area.




	        TABLE 2.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON  ELEVATION MODEL  

	       ORDER OF   CLASS       PERCENT     OBS                      CUM %    CUM %
	        SEARCH  ELEVATION(m)    AREA     NESTS    OBS-EXP          NESTS    AREA

  	          1     2300-2400       6.13       5       3.52            20.83    6.13
  	          2     2400-2500      10.41       6       3.50            45.83   16.54
 	          3     2700-2800      10.51       4       1.48            62.50   27.05
 	          4     2800-2900      13.15       4       0.84            79.17   40.20
 	          5     2900-3000      13.37       3      -0.21            91.67   53.57
  	          6   < 2200            1.37       0      -0.33            91.67   54.94
 	          7     2200-2300       3.58       0      -0.86            91.67   58.52
 	          8     2500-2600      14.02       2      -1.36           100.00   72.54

	   Figure 9.  The area to be searched (72.54%) based upon the Inclusive Elevation model (Table 2) 
		       to locate 100% of the nests.

SLOPE

Figure 10.  Slope Coverage.

             Slope from the DEM was divided into eight categories as follows:


                           CATEGORY    % AREA               CATEGORY    % AREA
		             0- 5%      11.90	             20-25%       9.37
		             5-10%      25.43		     25-30%       7.12
		            10-15%      17.78		     30-35%       5.48
		            15-20%      11.73	           > 35%         11.19
 


	        	      TABLE 3.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON SLOPE

	       ORDER OF   CLASS    PRECENT   SELECT            TOTAL    CUM %    CUM %
	        SEARCH    SLOPE(%)  AREA     NESTS   OBS-EXP   NESTS    NESTS    AREA

  	          1       10-15    17.78       4      2.044      9      37.50   17.78
  	          2 	   0- 5    11.90       2      0.691      5      58.33   29.68
  	          3       30-35     5.48       1      0.397      1      62.50   35.16
  	          4       25-30     7.12       1      0.217      2      70.83   42.28
  	          5        5-10    25.43       3      0.203      5      91.67   67.71

Figure 11.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Slope model (Table 3).  This model 
	     predicted eleven of thirteen nests (84.6%) after searching 67.7% of the study area.




	      	  TABLE 4.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON SLOPE 

	       ORDER OF   CLASS    PRECENT    OBS                     CUM %    CUM %
 	        SEARCH    SLOPE(%)  AREA     NESTS   OBS-EXP          NESTS    AREA

   	         1       10-15    17.78       9      4.733            37.50   17.78
   	         2 	  0- 5    11.90       5      2.144            58.33   29.68
   	         3       25-30     7.12       2      0.291            66.67   36.80
   	         4       20-25     9.37       2     -0.249            75.00   46.17
   	         5       30-35     5.48       1     -0.315            79.17   51.65
   	         6	  5-10    25.43       5     -1.103           100.00   77.08

	   Figure 12.  The area to be searched (77.08%) based upon the Inclusive Slope model (Table 4) 
		        to locate 100% of the nests.

ASPECT

Figure 13.  Aspect Coverage.

             Aspect from the DEM was divided into nine categories as follows:


                            CATEGORY    % AREA                CATEGORY    % AREA
		                N        17.76		          S         9.18 
		                NE       15.57		          SW        7.16
		                E        15.11		          W         8.05
		                SE       11.71		          NW       15.41 
						                  FLAT      0.05




	       		      TABLE 5.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON ASPECT

	       ORDER OF   CLASS    PRECENT   SELECT            TOTAL   CUM %    CUM %
	        SEARCH    ASPECT    AREA     NESTS   OBS-EXP   NESTS   NESTS    AREA

   	          1        SW       7.157      3      2.213      4     16.67    7.16
   	          2        NW      15.406      2      0.305      4     33.33   22.56
   	          3        NE      15.570      2      0.287      4     50.00   38.13
   	          4        W        8.052      1      0.114      2     58.33   46.19
   	          5        N       17.764      2      0.046      6     83.33   63.95
      	          6 	   FLAT     0.503      0     -0.121      0     83.33   64.45
   	          7        S        9.175      0     -0.202      2     91.67   73.63
   	          8        SE      11.706      1     -0.288      2    100.00   85.33

Figure 14.  The area to be searched based upon both Aspect models (Tables 5 & 6).  Both models
             predicted all thirteen nests (100%) after searching 85.33% of the study area.






	             TABLE 6.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON ASPECT

	       ORDER OF  CLASS     PRECENT    OBS                    CUM %     CUM %
 	        SEARCH   ASPECT     AREA     NESTS   OBS-EXP         NESTS     AREA

   	         1        SW       7.157      4      2.282           16.67     7.16
   	         2        N       17.764      6      1.737           41.67    24.92
   	         3        NW      15.406      4      0.303           58.33    40.33
   	         4        NE      15.570      4      0.263           75.00    55.89
  	         5        W        8.052      2      0.068           83.33    63.95
  	         6        FLAT     0.503      0     -0.121           83.33    64.45
   	         7        S        9.175      2     -0.202           91.67    73.63
   	         8        SE      11.706      2     -0.809          100.00    85.33

					Figure 15.  Northern Goshawks.

DISTANCE TO WATER

Figure 16.  Distance To Water Coverage.

             Eight categories of Distance To Water were created as follows:


        	            CATEGORY    % AREA                CATEGORY    % AREA
		             0 - 150     18.37		     600 - 750     10.13
		           150 - 300     15.87		     750 - 900      7.96
		           300 - 450     13.76		     900 -1050      6.62
		           450 - 600     11.85	          > 1050	   15.44





	        	         TABLE 7.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON DISTANCE TO WATER

	       ORDER OF       CLASS        PERCENT    SELECT             TOTAL     CUM %     CUM %
 	        SEARCH    DIST TO WATER(m)  AREA      NESTS    OBS-EXP   NESTS     NESTS     AREA

  	          1           0 - 150       18.37        6      3.979      10      41.67     18.37
  	          2 	    150 - 300       15.87        2      0.254       3      54.17     34.24
  	          3         900 -1050        6.62        1      0.212       1      58.33     40.86
   	          4         750 - 900        7.96        1      0.124       4      75.00     48.82
   	          5         450 - 600       11.85        1     -0.304       2      83.33     60.67
  	          6         300 - 450       13.76        1     -0.514       4     100.00     74.43

Figure 17.  The area to be searched based upon both Distance To Water models (Tables 7 & 8).
             Both models predicted all thirteen nests (100%) after searching 74.43% of the study area.




	           TABLE 8.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON DISTANCE TO WATER 

	       ORDER OF       CLASS        PERCENT      OBS                        CUM %     CUM %
	        SEARCH    DIST TO WATER(m)  AREA       NESTS   OBS-EXP             NESTS     AREA

   	          1           0 - 150       18.37       10      5.59               41.67     18.37
   	          2         750 - 900        7.96        4      2.09               58.33     26.33
   	          3         300 - 450       13.76        4      0.70               75.00     40.09
   	          4         900 -1050        6.62        1     -0.59               79.17     46.71
   	          5         150 - 300       15.87        3     -0.81               91.67     62.58
   	          6         450 - 600       11.85        2     -0.84              100.00     74.43

GAP VEGETATION

Figure 18.  GAP Vegetation Coverage.  GAP Vegetation of the study area included 26 vegetation 
	     classes of the 38 total classes.






	       		    TABLE 9.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON GAP VEGETATION

	       ORDER OF     CLASS           PERCENT    SELECT             TOTAL    CUM %     CUM %
 	        SEARCH    VEGETATION          AREA     NESTS    OBS-EXP   NESTS    NESTS     AREA

   	          1         PSME              5.58       3       2.386      6      25.00     5.58
   	          2         PICO             48.06       7       1.713     15      87.50    53.64
   	          3         PIPO              3.28       1       0.639      1      91.67    56.92

Figure 19.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive GAP model (Table 9).  This model 
	     predicted eleven of thirteen nests (84.6%) after searching 56.92% of the study area.


		   	TABLE 10.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON GAP VEGETATION

	       ORDER OF     CLASS            PERCENT    OBS               	   CUM %    CUM %
	        SEARCH    VEGETATION          AREA     NESTS    OBS-EXP    	   NESTS    AREA

  	          1         PSME              5.58       6       4.66              12.50     5.58
   	          2         PICO             48.06      15       3.47              87.50    53.64
   	          3         POTR              0.84       1       0.80              91.67    54.48
 	          4         PIPO/SHRB         1.16       1       0.72              95.83    55.64
  	          5         PIPO              3.28       1       0.21             100.00    58.92

Figure 20.  The area to be searched (58.92%) based upon the Inclusive GAP model (Table 10) to 
	     locate 100% of the nests.

FOREST CANOPY DENSITY

Figure 21.  Forest Canopy Density Coverage.

	     This coverage consisted of five GAP vegetation tree species classes where goshawk 
	     nests occurred.  Each class was divided into three canopy density classes (Low, 
	     Medium, & High) for a total of 15 classes.

CATEGORY % AREA CATEGORY % AREA LOWDEN PIPO 0.47 LOWDEN POTR 0.00+ MEDDEN PIPO 2.15 MEDDEN POTR 0.28 HIGHDEN PIPO 0.67 HIGHDEN POTR 0.55 LOWDEN PICO 4.27 LOWDEN PIPO/SHRB 0 MEDDEN PICO 24.60 MEDDEN PIPO/SHRB 0.94 HIGHDEN PICO 19.36 HIGHDEN PIPO/SHRB 0.22 LOWDEN PSME 0.60 MEDDEN PSME 2.65 HIGHDEN PSME 2.35

TABLE 11. PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON FOREST CANOPY DENSITY ORDER OF CLASS PERCENT SELECT TOTAL CUM% CUM % SEARCH CANOPY AREA NESTS OBS-EXP NESTS NESTS AREA 1 MEDDEN PICO 24.596 5 2.294 7 29.17 24.60 2 MEDDEN PSME 2.654 2 1.721 4 45.83 27.25 3 LOWDEN PICO 4.268 2 1.531 5 66.67 31.52 4 MEDDEN PIPO 2.152 1 0.763 1 70.83 33.67 5 HIGHDEN PSME 2.346 1 0.742 2 79.17 36.02

Figure 22.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Forest Canopy Density model (Table 11).
	     This model predicted eight of thirteen nests (61.5%) after searching 36.02% of the study 
	     area.



	         	  TABLE 12.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON FOREST CANOPY DENSITY 

	    ORDER OF       CLASS            PERCENT     OBS                        CUM%      CUM %
 	     SEARCH        CANOPY            AREA      NESTS    OBS-EXP            NESTS     AREA

  	       1	LOWDEN PICO          4.268       5       3.98              20.83     4.27
  	       2	MEDDEN PSME          2.654       4       3.36              37.50     6.92
   	       3	HIGHDEN PSME         2.346       2       1.44              45.83     9.27
   	       4	MEDDEN PICO         24.596       7       1.10              75.00    33.86
   	       5	MEDDEN POTR          0.277       1       0.93              79.17    34.14
   	       6        MEDDEN PIPO/SHRB     0.942       1       0.77              83.33    35.08
   	       7        MEDDEN PIPO          2.152       1       0.48              87.50    37.25
   	       .
  	       .
   	       .
  	      22	HIGHDEN PICO        19.364       3      -1.64             100.00    67.02

Figure 23.  The area to be searched (67.02%) based upon the Inclusive Forest Canopy Density model 
	     (Table 12) to locate 100% of the nests.

		     Figure 24.  Young Northern Goshawks (between four and seven days old).

ASPECT AND DISTANCE TO WATER

Figure 25.  Aspect and Distance to Water Coverage.  A total of 72 classes were created 
	     (ASPECT-8 and DIST TO WATER-9).


	                 TABLE 13.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON ASPECT AND DISTANCE TO WATER

	  ORDER OF          CLASS                 PERCENT     OBS              TOTAL    CUM %      CUM %
	   SEARCH    ASPECT   DIST TO WATER(m)     AREA      NESTS   OBS-EXP   NESTS    NESTS      AREA
	   
	     1         SW         0-150            1.225       2      1.865      2       8.33	   1.23
   	     2         NE         0-150            3.335       2      1.633      4      25.00      4.56
   	     3	       W        450-600            0.834       1      0.908      1      29.17      5.39
   	     4 	       SW       150-300            1.132       1      0.875      1      33.33      6.53
  	     5         N        750-900            1.305       1      0.856      3      45.83      7.83
  	     6         SE       300-450            1.575       1      0.827      1      50.00      9.41
  	     7         NW       150-300            2.280       1      0.749      1      54.17     11.69
   	     8         NW         0-150            2.435       1      0.732      1      58.33     14.12
  	     9	       N          0-150            3.559       1      0.609      2      66.67     17.68

Figure 26.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Aspect and Distance to Water model
	     (Table 13).  This model located an additional five nest sites (38.5%) 
	     after searching 17.68% of the study area.





	               TABLE 14.   SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON ASPECT & DISTANCE TO WATER

	  ORDER OF          CLASS                 PERCENT     OBS                       CUM %      CUM %
 	   SEARCH    ASPECT   DIST TO WATER(m)     AREA      NESTS   OBS-EXP            NESTS      AREA

   	     1         NE        0- 150            3.335       4      3.200             16.67      3.34
  	     2         N       750- 900            1.305       3      2.687             29.17      4.64
  	     3         SW        0- 150            1.225       2      1.706             37.50      5.87
  	     4         N         0- 150            3.559       2      1.146             45.83      9.42
  	     5	       S       750- 900            0.756       1      0.819             50.00     10.18
  	     6 	       SW      450- 600            0.806       1      0.807             54.17     10.99
  	     7         W       450- 600            0.834       1      0.800             58.33     11.82
  	     8         SW      150- 300            1.132       1      0.728             62.50     12.95
 	     9         S       300- 450            1.217       1      0.708             66.67     14.17
 	    10         NW      900-1050            1.252       1      0.700             70.83     15.42
	    11         W         0- 150            1.380       1      0.669             75.00     16.80
	    12         SE      300- 450            1.575       1      0.622             79.17     18.37
	    13         SE      150- 300            1.874       1      0.550             83.33     20.25
 	    14         NW      300- 450            2.081       1      0.501             87.50     22.33
 	    15         NW      150- 300            2.280       1      0.453             91.67     24.61
 	    16         NW        0- 150            2.435       1      0.416             95.83     27.04
 	    17         N       300- 450            2.600       1      0.376            100.00     29.64

Figure 27.  The area to be searched (29.64%) based upon the Inclusive Aspect and Distance to 
	     Water model (Table 14) to locate 100% of the nests.

ELEVATION AND SLOPE

A total of 88 classes were created (ELEVATION-11 and SLOPE-8).





	                  TABLE 15. PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON ELEVATION AND SLOPE

	ORDER OF         CLASS               PERCENT   SELECT              TOTAL   CUM %     CUM %
	 SEARCH    ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)      AREA     NESTS    OBS-EXP   NESTS   NESTS     AREA

  	   1          2400        10-15      1.914       2       1.789      2      8.33      1.91
 	   2	      2300        25-30      0.319       1       0.965      2     16.67      2.23
	   3	      2400        30-35      0.391       1       0.957      1     20.83      2.62
 	   4	      2700         5-10      1.701       1       0.813      1     25.00      4.33
 	   5          2800         0- 5      1.717       1       0.811      1     29.17      6.04
 	   6          2300         5-10      1.755       1       0.807      1     33.33      7.80
 	   7          2400         5-10      2.031       1       0.777      2     41.67      9.83
 	   8 	      2800        10-15      2.233       1       0.754      2     50.00     12.06
 	   9 	      2900        10-15      2.482       1       0.727      2     58.33     14.54
 	  10 	      2900         5-10      4.679       1       0.485      1     62.50     19.22

   Figure 28.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Elevation and Slope model (Table 15).
  		The model located an additional four nest sites (30.8%) after searching 19.22% of the 
	        study area.





	                      TABLE 16. SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON ELEVATION & SLOPE

	   ORDER OF        CLASS                PERCENT     OBS                      CUM %      CUM %
	    SEARCH   ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)       AREA     NESTS    OBS-EXP          NESTS      AREA

	      1         2300        25-30        0.319       2       1.92             8.33      0.32
	      2         2300        20-25        0.381       2       1.91            16.67      0.70
	      3         2700         0- 5        0.840       2       1.80            25.00      1.54
	      4         2400        10-15        1.914       2       1.54            33.33      3.46
	      5         2400         0- 5        2.031       2       1.51            41.67      5.49
	      6         2800        10-15        2.233       2       1.46            50.00      7.72
	      7         2900        10-15        2.482       2       1.40            58.33     10.20
	      8         2500        10-15        2.798       2       1.33            66.67     13.00
	      9         2400        30-35        0.391       1       0.91            70.83     13.39
	     10         2700        10-15        1.639       1       0.61            75.00     15.03
	     11         2700         5-10        1.701       1       0.59            79.17     16.73
	     12         2800         0- 5        1.717       1       0.59            83.33     18.45
	     13         2300         5-10        1.755       1       0.58            87.50     20.20
	     14         2400         5-10        2.795       1       0.33            91.67     23.00
	     15         2800         5-10        3.714       1       0.11            95.83     26.71
	      .
	      .
	      .
	     36         2900         6-10        4.679       1      -0.12           100.00     36.40

Figure 29.  The area to be searched (36.4%) based upon the Inclusive Elevation and Slope model 
	     (Table 16) to locate 100% of the nests.

GAP VEGETATION, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

A total of 2288 classes were created (GAP-26, ELEVATION-11, and SLOPE-8).







	        TABLE 17.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON GAP VEGETATION, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

ORDER OF                 CLASS                     PERCENT     SELECT              TOTAL    CUM %      CUM %
 SEARCH    VEGETATION  ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)        AREA       NEST    OBS-EXP    NESTS    NESTS      AREA

   1	      PSME       2400         10-15         0.303        2       1.967       2       8.33      0.30
   2          PICO       2400         30-35         0.167        1       0.982       1      12.50      0.47
   3          PICO       2400          0- 5         0.184        1       0.980       2      20.83      0.65
   4          PSME       2300         25-30         0.188        1       0.979       2      29.17      0.84
   5          PIPO       2300          5-10         0.222        1       0.976       1      33.33      1.06
   6          PICO       2800          0- 5         0.979        1       0.892       1      37.50      2.04
   7          PICO       2700          5-10         1.050        1       0.885       1      41.67      3.09
   8          PICO       2900         10-15         1.669        1       0.816       2      50.00      4.76
   9          PICO       2800         10-15         1.796        1       0.802       2      58.33      6.56
  10          PICO       2900          5-10         2.585        1       0.716       1      62.50      9.14

Figure 30.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Gap Vegetation, Elevation, and Slope 
	     model (Table 17).  This model located an additional four nest sites (30.8%) after 
	     searching 9.14% of the study area.






   	          TABLE 18.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON GAP VEGTATION, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

ORDER OF	        CLASS	                  PERCENT     SELECT                        CUM %      CUM %
 SEARCH    VEGETATION  ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)       AREA       NEST     OBS-EXP	            NESTS      AREA

   1          PICO       2400          0- 5        0.184        2        1.956	             8.33      0.18
   2          PSME       2300         25-30        0.188        2        1.955	            16.67      0.37
   3          PSME       2400         10-15        0.303        2        1.927	            25.00      0.68
   4          PICO       2900         10-15        1.669        2        1.599	            33.33      2.34
   5          PICO       2800         10-15        1.796        2        1.569	            41.67      4.14
   6          PPSB       2700          0- 5        0.004        1        0.999	            45.83      4.14
   7          PICO       2300         20-25        0.012        1        0.997              50.00      4.16
   8          POTR       2500         10-15        0.039        1        0.991              54.17      4.12
   9          PICO       2400         30-35        0.167        1        0.960	            58.33      4.36
  10          PSME       2300         20-25        0.184        1        0.956              62.50      4.54
  11          PSME       2400          5-10        0.210        1        0.950	            66.67      4.76
  12          PIPO       2300          5-10        0.222        1        0.947	            70.83      4.98
  13          PICO       2700          0- 5        0.391        1        0.906              75.00      5.37
  14          PICO       2800          0- 5        0.979        1        0.765              79.17      6.34
  15          PICO       2700          5-10        1.050        1        0.748              83.33      7.40
  16          PICO       2700         10-15        1.200        1        0.712              87.50      8.60
  17          PICO       2500         10-15        1.537        1        0.631              91.67     10.14
  18          PICO       2900          5-10        2.585        1        0.380              95.83     12.72
  19          PICO       2800          5-10        2.641        1        0.366             100.00     15.36

Figure 31.  The area to be searched (15.36%) based upon the Inclusive Gap Vegetation, 
	     Elevation, and Slope model (Table 18) to locate 100% of the nests.

FOREST CANOPY DENSITY, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

A total of 1320 classes were created 
	(FOREST CANOPY-15, ELEVATION-11, and SLOPE-8).






 	            TABLE 19.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON FOREST CANOPY DENSITY, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

	ORDER OF               CLASS                         PERCENT  SELECT            TOTAL   CUM %     CUM %
	 SEARCH      CANOPY    ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)         AREA    NESTS   OBS-EXP   NESTS   NESTS     AREA

	   1     HIGHDEN PSME     2400        10-15          0.103      2      1.989      2      8.33     0.10
	   2      LOWDEN PICO     2400         0- 5          0.064      1      0.993      2     16.67     0.17
	   3      MEDDEN PICO     2400        30-35          0.074      1      0.992      1     20.83     0.24
	   4      MEDDEN PSME     2300        20-25          0.083      1      0.991      1     25.00     0.32
	   5      MEDDEN PIPO     2300         5-10          0.163      1      0.982      1     29.17     0.48
	   6      LOWDEN PICO     2800         0- 5          0.219      1      0.976      1     33.33     0.70
	   7      LOWDEN PICO     2900         5-10          0.315      1      0.965      1     37.50     1.02
	   8      MEDDEN PICO     2700         5-10          0.698      1      0.923      1     41.67     1.72
	   9      MEDDEN PICO     2900        10-15          0.880      1      0.903      2     50.50     2.60
	  10      MEDDEN PICO     2800        10-15          0.985      1      0.892      1     54.17     3.58

Figure 32.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Forest Canopy Density, Elevation, 
	     and Slope model (Table 19).  This model located an additional two nest sites (15.4%) 
	     after searching 3.58% of the study area.





                     TABLE 20.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON FOREST CANOPY DENSITY, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

	ORDER OF               CLASS                         PERCENT   OBS                      CUM %     CUM %
	 SEARCH      CANOPY    ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)         AREA    NESTS   OBS-EXP           NESTS     AREA

	   1      LOWDEN PICO     2400         0- 5          0.064      2      1.985             8.33     0.064
	   2      MEDDEN PSME     2300        20-25          0.093      2      1.978            16.67     0.157
	   3     HIGHDEN PSME     2400        10-15          0.103      2      1.975            25.00     0.260
	   4      MEDDEN PICO     2900        10-15          0.880      2      1.789            33.33     1.140
	   5      MEDDEN PPSB     2700         0- 5          0.003      1      0.999            37.50     1.143
	   6      MEDDEN POTR     2500        10-15          0.011      1      0.997            41.67     1.154
	   7      MEDDEN PICO     2300        15-20          0.012      1      0.997            45.83     1.166
	   8      LOWDEN PICO     2700         0- 5          0.063      1      0.985            50.00     1.229
	   9      MEDDEN PICO     2400        30-35          0.074      1      0.982            54.17     1.303
	  10      MEDDEN PSME     2300        25-30          0.083      1      0.980            58.33     1.386
	  11      MEDDEN PSME     2400         5-10          0.122      1      0.971            62.50     1.508
	  12      MEDDEN PIPO     2300         5-10          0.163      1      0.961            66.67     1.671
	  13      LOWDEN PICO     2800         0- 5          0.219      1      0.947            70.83     1.890
	  14      LOWDEN PICO     2900         5-10          0.315      1      0.924            75.00     2.205
	  15     HIGHDEN PICO     2700        10-15          0.355      1      0.915            79.17     2.560
	  16     HIGHDEN PICO     2500        10-15          0.443      1      0.894            83.33     3.003
	  17     HIGHDEN PICO     2800        10-15          0.627      1      0.850            87.50     3.630
	  18      MEDDEN PICO     2700         5-10          0.698      1      0.832            91.67     4.328
	  19      MEDDEN PICO     2800        10-15          0.985      1      0.764            95.83     5.313
	  20      MEDDEN PICO     2800         5-10          1.553      1      0.627           100.00     6.866

Figure 33.  The area to be searched (6.87%) based upon the Inclusive Forest Canopy Density, 
	     Elevation, and Slope model (Table 20) to locate 100% of the nests.

ASPECT, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

A total of 704 classes were created (ASPECT-8, ELEVATION-11, and SLOPE-8).







                    TABLE 21.  PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED UPON ASPECT, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

	ORDER OF            CLASS                   PERCENT   SELECT            TOTAL    CUM %    CUM %
	 SEARCH   ASPECT  ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)     AREA     NESTS   OBS-EXP   NESTS    NESTS    AREA

	   1        SW       2400       30-35        0.020      1      0.998      1       4.17    0.02
	   2	    N        2300       25-30        0.138      1      0.985      2      12.50    0.16
	   3        SW       2800        0- 5        0.242      1      0.973      1      16.67    0.40
	   4	    NE       2400       10-15        0.296      1      0.967      1      20.83    0.70
	   5        SW       2800       10-15        0.310      1      0.966      1      25.00    1.01
	   6        NE       2700        5-10        0.317      1      0.965      1      29.17    1.32
	   7        NW       2300        5-10        0.327      1      0.964      1      33.33    1.65
	   8        SE       2900       10-15        0.347      1      0.962      1      37.50    2.00
	   9        NW       2400       10-15        0.362      1      0.960      1      41.67    2.36
	  10        W        2900        5-10        0.363      1      0.960      1      45.83    2.72
	  11	    N        2400        0- 5        0.364      1      0.960      1      50.00    3.09

Figure 34.  The area to be searched based upon the Predictive Aspect, Elevation, and Slope 
	     model (Table 21).  This model located one additional nest site (7.7%) after 
	     searching 3.09% of the study area.





                      TABLE 22.  SEARCH ORDER OF INCLUSIVE MODEL BASED UPON ASPECT, ELEVATION, AND SLOPE

	ORDER OF            CLASS                  PERCENT    OBS                        CUM %    CUM %
	 SEARCH   ASPECT  ELEVATION(m)  SLOPE(%)     AREA     NESTS   OBS-EXP            NESTS    AREA

	   1        N        2300       25-30       0.138      2      1.967               8.33    0.14
	   2        SW       2400       30-35       0.020      1      0.995              12.50    0.16
	   3        N        2700        0- 5       0.058      1      0.986              16.67    0.22
	   4        NW       2300       20-25       0.085      1      0.980              20.83    0.30
	   5        SE       2700        0- 5       0.112      1      0.973              25.00    0.31
	   6	    N        2300       20-25       0.150      1      0.964              29.17    0.46
	   7        SW       2500       10-15       0.190      1      0.954              33.33    0.65
	   8        S        2800       10-15       0.227      1      0.946              37.50    0.88
	   9        SW       2800        0- 5       0.242      1      0.942              41.67    1.12
	  10        NW       2400        0- 5       0.246      1      0.941              45.83    1.37
	  11        NE       2400       10-15       0.296      1      0.929              50.00    1.66
	  12        S        2900       10-15       0.305      1      0.927              54.17    1.97
	  13        NE       2500       10-15       0.308      1      0.926              58.33    2.28
	  14        NE       2700       10-15       0.309      1      0.926              62.50    2.59
	  15        SW       2800       10-15       0.310      1      0.926              66.67    2.90
	  16        NE       2700        5-10       0.317      1      0.924              70.83    3.21
	  17        NW       2300        5-10       0.327      1      0.922              75.00    3.54
	  18        SE       2900       10-15       0.347      1      0.917              79.17    3.89
	  19        NW       2400       10-15       0.362      1      0.913              83.33    4.25
	  20        W        2900        5-10       0.363      1      0.913              87.50    4.61
	  21	    N        2400        0- 5       0.364      1      0.913              91.67    4.98
	  22	    W        2800        5-10       0.376      1      0.910              95.83    5.35
	  23	    N        2400        5-10       0.758      1      0.818             100.00    6.11

Figure 35.  The area to be searched (6.11%) based upon the Inclusive Aspect, Elevation, 
	     and Slope model (Table 22) to locate 100% of the nests.

  			Figure 36.  Adult female Northern Goshawk defending her nest.

DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY


	In order to rate the Predictive Models, we divided the percentage of nest sites predicted by the area searched
to derive performance indices which were ranked (Table 23).   The performance indices for the Inclusive Models were
derived by dividing 100% by the area searched.  These performance indices were ranked for their ability to locate all
nest sites. 
	The best overall Predictive Model was the Forest Canopy, Elevation, and Slope Model, which predicted 15.4% of
the nest sites in only 3.6% of the area (Performance Index = 4.28).  The best two-factor Predictive Model was the
Aspect and Distance to Water Model, which predicted 38.5% of the nest sites in 17.7% of the area (Performance Index =
2.18).  The best single-factor Predictive Model was the Forest Canopy Model which predicted 61.5% of the nest sites 
in 36.0% of the area (Performance Index = 1.71). 
	The best overall Inclusive Model was the Aspect, Elevation, and Slope Model, which required 6.11% of the area 
to locate all nest sites (Performance Index = 16.39).  The best two-factor Inclusive Model was also the Aspect and
Distance to Water Model, which required 29.6% of the area to locate all nest sites (Performance Index = 3.38). 
The best single-factor model was the GAP Model, which required 58.9% of the area to locate all nest sites (Performance
Index = 1.69).
	 The Inclusive Models will be tested this summer in Ashley National Forest for their ability to locate 
additional (previously unknown) nest sites.



                           TABLE 23.  COMPARISON OF PREDICTIVE AND INCLUSIVE MODELS.
			
                 % OF NESTS     AREA         PERFORMANCE   PERFORMANCE 	    AREA SEARCHED    PERFORMANCE    PERFORMANCE   
  MODEL          PREDICTED    SEARCHED         INDEX          RANK	 TO FIND ALL NESTS     INDEX          RANK
                    (P)	        (S)            (P/S)                            (AS)           (T*/AS)
ELEVATION 	    84.6	53.6		1.58		7		72.5		1.38		8
SLOPE		    84.6	67.7		1.25	       10		77.1		1.30	       10
ASPECT	           100.0	85.3		1.17	       11		85.3		1.17	       11
DIST TO WATER      100.0	74.4		1.34		9		74.4		1.34		9
GAP		    84.6	56.9		1.48		8		58.9		1.69		6
FOREST CANOPY       61.5	36.0		1.71		5		67.0		1.49		7

ASPECT &
 DIST TO WATER	    38.5	17.7		2.18		4		29.6		3.38		4

ELEVATION &
 SLOPE		    30.8	19.2		1.60		6		36.4		2.75		5

GAP, ELEVATION,
 & SLOPE	    30.8	 9.1		3.38		2		15.4		6.49		3

FOREST CANOPY,
 ELEVATION,
 & SLOPE	    15.4	 3.6		4.28	 	1		6.9	       14.49		2

ASPECT,
 ELEVATION,
 & SLOPE	     7.7	 3.1		2.48	 	3		6.1	       16.39		1

* - T represents all nests (100%).

LITERATURE CITED


Johansson, C., P.J. Hardin, and C.M. White. 1994. Large-area goshawk habitat modeling 
	in Dixie National Forest using vegetation and elevation data.  The Northern 
	Goshawk: Ecology and Management. W.M. Block, M.L. Morrison, and M.H. Resier,
	Eds. Studies in Avian Biology No. 16:24. 

Joy, S.M., R.T. Reynolds, and D.G. Leslie. 1994. Northern Goshawk Broadcast Surveys:  
	Hawk Response Variables and Survey Costs. The Northern Goshawk: Ecology and 
	Management. W.M. Block, M.L. Morrison, and M.H. Resier, Eds. Studies in 
	Avian Biology No. 16:24. 

Kennedy, P., and D. Stahlecker. 1993. Responsiveness of nesting Northern Goshawks to 
	taped broadcasts of three conspecific calls. J. Wildl. Manage. 57:249-257.

Reynolds, R.T. et al. (eds. committee). 1991. Management recommendations for the 
	Northern Goshawk in the southwestern United States. Southwest Region, 
	Albuquerque, N.M.

U.S. Dept. Interior. 1991. Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants; Animal 
	Candidate Review... Federal Register 56(225): 58804� 58836.


		           APPENDIX 1  HABITAT DATA FOR NEST SITES

                                                                  DISTANCE TO
           NEST   ELEVATION-CLASS  SLOPE-CLASS ASPECT  GAP-VEG   WATER    ROAD
             1        2571 -  5    14.8 -  3     SW    HD PICO    492     440
             2        2397 -  3    20.3 -  5      N    MD PICO    766     855
             3*       2346 -  3    25.5 -  6      N    MD PSME    787     350
             4        2932 -  9    10.6 -  3      S    MD PICO    810      17
             5*       2857 -  8    12.7 -  3     SW    MD PICO    285      43
             6        2875 -  8    12.1 -  3      S    MD PICO    351     164
             7        2447 -  4     8.8 -  2      N    MD PSME     61     609
             8*       2387 -  3     7.7 -  2     NW    MD PIPO    256     515
             9*       2414 -  4    13.8 -  3     NW    MD PSME      0     365
            10        2339 -  3    21.9 -  5     NW    HD PSME    322     275
            11        2730 -  7    3.00 -  1     SE    MD PIPO/SH 176      14
            12        2731 -  7    5.00 -  1      N    LD PICO    344      14
            13        2756 -  7    12.1 -  3     NE    MD PICO     16     523
            14*       2725 -  7     8.4 -  2     NE    MD PICO     31     107
            15        2484 -  4     2.4 -  1     NW    LD PICO    925    1252
            16        2539 -  5    10.1 -  3     NE    MD POTR     49    1593
            17*       2476 -  4     3.4 -  1      N    MD PICO     92     518
            18*       2451 -  4    12.7 -  3     NE    HD PSME     15     195
            19*       2907 -  9    10.7 -  3     SE    MD PICO    346     752
            20*       2890 -  8     3.7 -  1     SW    LD PICO      0      25
            21        2899 -  8    10.0 -  2      W    MD PICO     13     261
            22*       2999 -  9     8.5 -  2      W    LD PICO    459      14
            23        2384 -  3    26.0 -  6      N    MD PSME    806     573
            24*       2467 -  4    30.1 -  7     SW    MD PICO    131     478

             * - Indicates nests selected to build predictive 
                 models.