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Calibration

  In a discrete event simulation, events are called to happen based on an assumed probability of occurrence. It is vitally important that the probabilities are based on reasonable representations of the events in questions. A credible model of a system is impossible without valid data on the components in question.

In the model represented in this study, many aspects are simulated for which no comprehensive data sets exist. In such cases, an attempt is made to extrapolate comprehensive population characteristics from smaller samples. The validity of the simulation is heavily dependent on the validity of these extrapolations: discussions of the data sets used and the methods used to extrapolate these data to the larger population are essential to evaluate the veracity of the model.


  
Table 4.1: Typical trip frequency data from boater interviews
\begin{table} \begin{small} \begin{tabularx} {\linewidth}{\vert\vert l\vert X\ve... ...th \ \hline etc \dots & \dots & & & & & \ \end{tabularx}\end{small}\end{table}


 
Paul Box
3/11/1998