Simulation Results

**Table 5.6:** Simulation results for study area
Destination	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 1\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 2\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 3\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 4\end{rotate}$
5cweekday winter
Bay:	119	109	119	146
Big Pass:	18	15	28	25
City Island:	8	3	8	7
Clearwater:	6	15	9	19
Cortez:	13	14	9	11
Cove:	13	10	3	11
EW Channel:	19	38	23	26
Flats:	38	47	54	41
Holiday Inn:	12	8	4	6
ICW and Bay:	76	61	58	75
ICW and Gulf:	94	82	93	115
Jewfish Key:	9	8	6	6
Longboat Key:	9	11	7	11
Longboat Pass:	3	9	3	7
Marinas:	2	6	2	2
Midnight Pass:	10	16	7	8
Moores:	8	11	7	6
New Pass:	9	3	6	6
Phillippi Creek:	10	9	7	8
Quay:	5	12	5	14
Racing Buoys:	10	5	9	2
Reefs:	7	10	11	9
Ringling:	19	20	30	24
Sarasota:	8	5	5	6
Sar. Yacht Club:	3	10	10	9
Siesta Key:	20	9	11	12
South ICW:	28	31	40	35
Tampa Bay:	31	25	29	33
Tidy Island:	6	10	9	8
5cweekday summer
Bay:	31	38	29	32
Big Pass:	21	11	21	13
Cortez:	2	3	2	2
Flats:	21	25	18	19
ICW:	13	14	18	15
Jewfish Key:	7	7	8	9
Longboat Pass:	13	30	11	12
Marina Jacks:	1	3	1	3
Marinas:	4	5	6	2
New Pass:	26	36	30	22
Phillippi Creek:	4	10	5	6
Quay:	1	1	1	3
Reefs:	5	6	3	11
Sarasota:	7	7	9	5
Siesta Key:	2	2	1	5
Sisters Keys:	3	2	4	1
South Bay:	7	8	7	11
South ICW:	10	3	4	12
Tampa Bay:	39	36	39	45
Yacht Clubs:	3	5	6	5

Destination	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 1\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 2\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 3\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Run 4\end{rotate}$
5cweekend winter
Bay:	156	176	176	166
Big Pass:	28	17	19	20
City Island:	12	8	8	9
Clearwater:	10	18	21	10
Cortez:	20	7	9	11
Cove:	7	8	10	9
EW Channel:	28	36	28	26
Flats:	41	53	57	61
Holiday Inn:	8	10	9	17
ICW and Bay:	77	106	95	93
ICW and Gulf:	199	207	172	218
Jewfish Key:	6	7	7	8
Longboat Key:	14	13	15	12
Longboat Pass:	11	5	8	4
Marinas:	1		1	1
Midnight Pass:	12	18	12	12
Moores:	9	1	9	8
New Pass:	10	10	6	7
Phillippi Creek:	8	7	6	17
Quay:	11	12	12	11
Racing Buoys:	15	3	7	4
Reefs:	14	8	11	12
Ringling:	35	34	34	28
Sarasota:	17	10	14	16
Sar. Yacht Club:	11	13	17	7
Siesta Key:	18	17	18	15
South ICW:	36	46	46	43
Tampa Bay:	36	31	35	44
Tidy Island:	8	9	9	17
5cweekend summer
Bay:	90	74	77	67
Big Pass:	19	25	35	36
Cortez:	3	4	7	7
Flats:	40	20	33	35
ICW:	28	30	29	34
Jewfish Key:	18	14	15	12
Longboat Pass:	34	35	37	30
Marina Jacks:	8	5	4	3
Marinas:	1	7	3	3
New Pass:	62	60	71	62
Phillippi Creek:	6	8	13	17
Quay:	8	5	5	1
Reefs:	10	11	14	11
Sarasota:	14	14	9	18
Siesta Key:	6	5	1	1
Sisters Keys:	6	7	9	8
South Bay:	9	9	14	13
South ICW:	18	14	16	17
Tampa Bay:	59	54	60	67
Yacht Clubs:	4	6	6	7

A summary of simulation results for the four scenarios for Sarasota Bay is presented in table 5.6. The simulation runs used to compile these tables used the same random number seeds used in the simulation runs that produced tables 5.2 to 5.5. Tables 5.2 through 5.5 are subsets of the data used to produce table 5.6, which provides a useful context with which the simulation results may be compared.

**Table 5.7:** Variation of results for study area
Destination	$\begin{rotate} {45}Mean\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Standard Dev.\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Proportion\end{rotate}$
4cWeekday Winter
Bay :	123.25	15.8824	0.1289
Big Pass :	21.50	6.0277	0.2804
City Island :	6.50	2.3805	0.3662
Clearwater :	12.25	5.8523	0.4777
Cortez :	11.75	2.2174	0.1887
Cove :	9.25	4.3493	0.4702
EW Channel :	26.50	8.1854	0.3089
Flats :	45.00	7.0711	0.1571
Holiday Inn :	7.50	3.4157	0.4554
ICW and Bay :	67.50	9.3274	0.1382
ICW and Gulf :	96.00	13.7840	0.1436
Jewfish Key :	7.25	1.5000	0.2069
Longboat Key :	9.50	1.9149	0.2016
Longboat Pass :	5.50	3.0000	0.5455
Marinas :	3.00	2.0000	0.6667
Midnight Pass :	10.25	4.0311	0.3933
Moores :	8.00	2.1602	0.2700
New Pass :	6.00	2.4495	0.4082
Phillippi Creek :	8.50	1.2910	0.1519
Quay :	9.00	4.6904	0.5212
Racing Bouys :	6.50	3.6968	0.5687
Reefs :	9.25	1.7078	0.1846
Ringling :	23.25	4.9917	0.2147
Sarasota :	6.00	1.4142	0.2357
Sarasota Yacht Club :	8.00	3.3665	0.4208
Siesta Key :	13.00	4.8305	0.3716
South ICW :	33.50	5.1962	0.1551
Tampa Bay :	29.50	3.4157	0.1158
Tidy Island :	8.25	1.7078	0.2070
4cWeekday Summer
Bay :	32.50	3.8730	0.1192
Big Pass :	16.50	5.2599	0.3188
Cortez :	2.25	0.5000	0.2222
Flats :	20.75	3.0957	0.1492
ICW :	15.00	2.1602	0.1440
Jewfish Key :	7.75	0.9574	0.1235
Longboat Pass :	16.50	9.0370	0.5477
Marina Jacks :	2.00	1.1547	0.5774
Marinas :	4.25	1.7078	0.4018
New Pass :	28.50	5.9722	0.2095
Phillippi Creek :	6.25	2.6300	0.4208
Quay :	1.50	1.0000	0.6667
Reefs :	6.25	3.4034	0.5445
Sarasota :	7.00	1.6330	0.2333
Siesta Key :	2.50	1.7321	0.6928
Sisters Keys :	2.50	1.2910	0.5164
South Bay :	8.25	1.8930	0.2295
South ICW :	7.25	4.4253	0.6104
Tampa Bay :	39.75	3.7749	0.0950
Yacht Clubs :	4.75	1.2583	0.2649

Destination	$\begin{rotate} {45}Mean\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Standard Dev.\end{rotate}$	$\begin{rotate} {45}Proportion\end{rotate}$
4cWeekend Winter
Bay :	168.50	9.5743	0.0568
Big Pass :	21.00	4.8305	0.2300
City Island :	9.25	1.8930	0.2046
Clearwater :	14.75	5.6199	0.3810
Cortez :	11.75	5.7373	0.4883
Cove :	8.50	1.2910	0.1519
EW Channel :	29.50	4.4347	0.1503
Flats :	53.00	8.6410	0.1630
Holiday Inn :	11.00	4.0825	0.3711
ICW and Bay :	92.75	11.9548	0.1289
ICW and Gulf :	199.00	19.6129	0.0986
Jewfish Key :	7.00	0.8165	0.1166
Longboat Key :	13.50	1.2910	0.0956
Longboat Pass :	7.00	3.1623	0.4518
Marinas :	0.75	0.5000	0.6667
Midnight Pass :	13.50	3.0000	0.2222
Moores :	6.75	3.8622	0.5722
New Pass :	8.25	2.0616	0.2499
Phillippi Creek :	9.50	5.0662	0.5333
Quay :	11.50	0.5774	0.0502
Racing Bouys :	7.25	5.4391	0.7502
Reefs :	11.25	2.5000	0.2222
Ringling :	32.75	3.2016	0.0978
Sarasota :	14.25	3.0957	0.2172
Sarasota Yacht Club :	12.00	4.1633	0.3469
Siesta Key :	17.00	1.4142	0.0832
South ICW :	42.75	4.7170	0.1103
Tampa Bay :	36.50	5.4467	0.1492
Tidy Island :	10.75	4.1932	0.3901
4cWeekend Summer
Bay :	77.00	9.6264	0.1250
Big Pass :	28.75	8.1803	0.2845
Cortez :	5.25	2.0616	0.3927
Flats :	32.00	8.5245	0.2664
ICW :	30.25	2.6300	0.0869
Jewfish Key :	14.75	2.5000	0.1695
Longboat Pass :	34.00	2.9439	0.0866
Marina Jacks :	5.00	2.1602	0.4320
Marinas :	3.50	2.5166	0.7190
New Pass :	63.75	4.9244	0.0772
Phillippi Creek :	11.00	4.9666	0.4515
Quay :	4.75	2.8723	0.6047
Reefs :	11.50	1.7321	0.1506
Sarasota :	13.75	3.6856	0.2680
Siesta Key :	3.25	2.6300	0.8092
Sisters Keys :	7.50	1.2910	0.1721
South Bay :	11.25	2.6300	0.2338
South ICW :	16.25	1.7078	0.1051
Tampa Bay :	60.00	5.3541	0.0892
Yacht Clubs :	5.75	1.2583	0.2188

The variation between runs for the entire bay is comparatively less than that for individual trafficsheds, largely because of the size of the population. There are some 4500 boats that are available to embark on any given day, and total number of embarked boats range from typically 250 on a weekday in the summer, to around 1000 for a weekend in the winter. Still, there is seemingly significant variation in the results between runs in certain cases. The number of boats going for ``runs around the bay'' on a weekday in the winter range from 109 to 146, a 30% difference.

Table 5.7 shows the mean, standard deviation, and proportion of deviation (standard deviation divided by mean) for the destinations in the bay. It becomes quickly apparent that there is an (untested) relationship between the number of boats that arrive to a destination and the proportion of variance. Destinations that receive 100 or more boats have a proportion of deviation of around 15%, while those that receive less than 10 have a proportion of 80% or higher. It is possible that these numbers will converge as this simulation is run for a larger number of times. Four runs is a small number of runs to make for such a simulation; greater confidence can be achieved in the results if a more efficient way can be found to set up the simulation that allows for large numbers of runs in a reasonable amount of time.