next up previous contents
Next: Basic Formulation Up: Results AND DISCUSSION Previous: Implications for Monitoring

Evaluation of Simulation Method

The wording of this chapter has been carefully chosen to describe the results of the simulation, while attempting to venture no opinion on what is actually happening in Sarasota Bay on a given day. Since one of the objectives of this study was to create a ``working model'' of Sarasota Bay's boat traffic, and since all the conclusions drawn are based on the simulation results, this study would not be complete without some critique of the simulation itself.

The most important questions regarding the simulation concern how accurate of a representation is it of a real traffic system. In particular, is it an accurate representation of what one would expect to see in Sarasota Bay? One way of answering these questions would be a comparison of simulated results to actual field observation. This would require a level of field work that is beyond the scope of this study, and would run the risk of introducing a circular component into the question. If the results do not compare favorably to the simulated results, is the observation strategy, the calibration, or the fundamental formulation of the model at fault? How would you define a favorable or not favorable comparison? A short discussion of what the simulation is and is not will help in formulating ways to answer these questions and guide future research in this area.



 
next up previous contents
Next: Basic Formulation Up: Results AND DISCUSSION Previous: Implications for Monitoring
Paul Box
3/11/1998