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Basic Formulation

One of the starting assumptions of this model was that it is impossible to know what the global characteristics of the traffic will be before the simulation is started. By simulating traffic at the individual boat level, this assumption realized itself in the results. This could be a case of getting the desired answer by formulating the question in the desired way: by stating that boat traffic is highly variable in the beginning, I have created a model with highly variable boat traffic. The results of the simulation make intuitive sense to people familiar with the boat traffic in the bay, but this is not a quantitative measure of how accurate the simulation is.

Again, it should be stated that the objective was to create a working traffic model and reasonably realistic simulation on which conclusions could be drawn about monitoring recreational boat traffic, not to explicitly recreate the traffic patterns of Sarasota Bay at the time that the data were gathered.



Paul Box
3/11/1998